How often do these markets get it right?

Every market we track eventually resolves. This is how the prices on Kalshi and Polymarket held up against what really happened, across every market that has resolved so far.

22,754

Markets resolved

tracked to their outcome

88.7%

Right when confident

when the market was 80%+ sure

100%

Platforms agreed

Kalshi & Polymarket, same outcome

70.5%

Favorite won

the side priced over 50%

Calibration: price vs. reality

Each point groups markets by their price, then shows how often those markets actually resolved YES. A perfectly honest market would sit on the dashed line, so markets priced at 70% would resolve YES about 70% of the time.

Actual outcomes Perfect calibration

Based on 22,754 matched markets that have resolved. “What the market said” is the consensus of the two platforms’ last price before settlement. Brier score 0.190 (lower is better; always guessing 50% scores 0.25).