Consensus
Volume-weighted average across both platforms
What would it pay?
If your side wins, at today's prices
Kalshi · YES at 7¢
$1,429
$100.00 in, $1,329 profit
Polymarket · YES at 5¢
$2,000
$100.00 in, $1,900 profit
Uses the prices shown above. The price you would actually pay can be slightly higher, and fees apply. An illustration, not advice.
37 outcomes · live on Kalshi and Polymarket
Chance is the volume-weighted average of both platforms. Δ is how far apart they are, in points.
Last 90 days, both platforms
This market resolves "Yes" if the stated condition is met by the expiry date above, based on the resolution source each platform specifies in its own market rules. Kalshi and Polymarket may phrase or resolve this question slightly differently — always check each platform's own rules before treating either number as final.